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Mérida AD vs Badajoz — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Badajoz
Badajoz
12/11/2022Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mérida AD45%
×Draw28%
Badajoz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.32
Badajoz
0.94

Mérida AD creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.37
Badajoz
0.76

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
Badajoz
1.27

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
Badajoz+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Badajoz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
73%
Mérida AD or Badajoz
72%
Draw or Badajoz
55%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
21%
Badajoz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
73%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
38%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
15%
Badajoz 1+ goals
61%
Badajoz 2+ goals
24%
Badajoz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
63%
Badajoz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Badajoz away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Badajoz defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.32

Badajoz attack 0.76 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mérida AD scores more
45%
level
28%
Badajoz scores more
27%

Mérida AD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Mérida AD 1–0 Badajoz

Mérida AD beat Badajoz 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 11, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.