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Badajoz vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Badajoz
Badajoz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
3/4/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Badajoz43%
×Draw29%
Mérida AD28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Badajoz
1.23
Mérida AD
0.92

Badajoz creates 34% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 37 away

creates per match

Badajoz
1.18
Mérida AD
0.92

allows per match

Badajoz
0.92
Mérida AD
1.27

finishing

Badajoz+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Badajoz ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Badajoz or draw
72%
Badajoz or Mérida AD
71%
Draw or Mérida AD
57%

Winning margin

Badajoz wins by 2+
19%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Badajoz 1+ goals
71%
Badajoz 2+ goals
35%
Badajoz 3+ goals
13%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
60%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
23%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Badajoz (draw refunded)
61%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Badajoz at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.92 · 38 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Badajoz attack 1.18 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Badajoz defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Badajoz scores more
43%
level
29%
Mérida AD scores more
28%

Badajoz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Badajoz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Badajoz vs Mérida AD

Badajoz and Mérida AD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero in Badajoz.