Mérida AD 1–0 Atlético Baleares: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Baleares

5/9/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Mérida AD41%

×Draw31%

Atlético Baleares28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchAtlético Baleares

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.83

Mérida AD

1.08

Atlético Baleares

0.83

Mérida AD creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

0.83

creates per match

1.25

0.42

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Mérida AD

0.83

Atlético Baleares

1.25

allows per match

Mérida AD

0.42

Atlético Baleares

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Atlético Baleares →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

72%

Mérida AD or Atlético Baleares

69%

Draw or Atlético Baleares

59%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

17%

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

66%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

29%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

10%

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

56%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

20%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

60%

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.42 · 12 matches

Atlético Baleares away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 0.83 + Atlético Baleares defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético Baleares attack 1.25 + Mérida AD defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mérida AD scores more

41%

level

31%

Atlético Baleares scores more

28%

Mérida AD at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff