Atlético Baleares 2–1 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

Atlético Baleares

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Mérida AD

4/18/2021

Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Balear

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Atlético Baleares55%

×Draw27%

Mérida AD18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético BalearesExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.71

Atlético Baleares

1.46

Mérida AD

0.71

Atlético Baleares creates 106% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

1.75

creates per match

0.75

0.67

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Atlético Baleares

1.75

Mérida AD

0.75

allows per match

Atlético Baleares

0.67

Mérida AD

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Baleares+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Baleares ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Atlético Baleares or draw

82%

Atlético Baleares or Mérida AD

73%

Draw or Mérida AD

45%

Winning margin

Atlético Baleares wins by 2+

28%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlético Baleares 1+ goals

77%

Atlético Baleares 2+ goals

43%

Atlético Baleares 3+ goals

18%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

51%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

16%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Atlético Baleares (draw refunded)

75%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Baleares at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.67 · 12 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Baleares attack 1.75 + Mérida AD defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mérida AD attack 0.75 + Atlético Baleares defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlético Baleares scores more

55%

level

27%

Mérida AD scores more

18%

Atlético Baleares at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlético Baleares will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff