Mérida AD 2–3 Athletic Club II: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Athletic Club II

12/19/2025

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD45%

×Draw27%

Athletic Club II28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchAthletic Club II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.06

Mérida AD

1.41

Athletic Club II

1.06

Mérida AD creates 33% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 56 away

1.37

creates per match

1.02

1.11

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.37

Athletic Club II

1.02

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Athletic Club II

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Athletic Club II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

72%

Mérida AD or Athletic Club II

73%

Draw or Athletic Club II

55%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

22%

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

76%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

41%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

17%

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

65%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

29%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

61%

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Athletic Club II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Athletic Club II defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.41

Athletic Club II attack 1.02 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mérida AD scores more

45%

level

27%

Athletic Club II scores more

28%

Mérida AD at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff