Athletic Club II 1–1 Mérida AD: Result & Stats

Athletic Club II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Mérida AD

3/20/2026

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 29Lezama Facilities

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Athletic Club II42%

×Draw29%

Mérida AD29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Athletic Club IIExpected goals in this matchMérida AD

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.95

Athletic Club II

1.20

Mérida AD

0.95

Athletic Club II creates 26% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 37 away

1.12

creates per match

0.92

0.98

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Athletic Club II

1.12

Mérida AD

0.92

allows per match

Athletic Club II

0.98

Mérida AD

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Athletic Club II+0.00on par

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Athletic Club II ↓

Mérida AD →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Athletic Club II or draw

71%

Athletic Club II or Mérida AD

71%

Draw or Mérida AD

58%

Winning margin

Athletic Club II wins by 2+

18%

Mérida AD wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Athletic Club II 1+ goals

70%

Athletic Club II 2+ goals

34%

Athletic Club II 3+ goals

12%

Mérida AD 1+ goals

61%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

25%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Athletic Club II (draw refunded)

59%

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Athletic Club II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 57 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Athletic Club II attack 1.12 + Mérida AD defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Mérida AD attack 0.92 + Athletic Club II defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Athletic Club II scores more

42%

level

29%

Mérida AD scores more

29%

Athletic Club II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Athletic Club II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Mérida AD

Athletic Club II and Mérida AD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 20, 2026.

The match was played at Lezama Facilities in Lezama.

Athletic Club II vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Athletic Club II vs Mérida AD