Mérida AD 0–2 Alcorcon: Result & Stats

Mérida AD

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Alcorcon

1/8/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mérida AD32%

×Draw29%

Alcorcon39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mérida ADExpected goals in this matchAlcorcon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.19

Mérida AD

1.06

Alcorcon

1.19

Alcorcon creates 12% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

1.26

1.11

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Mérida AD

1.37

Alcorcon

1.26

allows per match

Mérida AD

1.11

Alcorcon

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par

Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

Alcorcon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw

61%

Mérida AD or Alcorcon

71%

Draw or Alcorcon

68%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+

13%

Alcorcon wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals

65%

Mérida AD 2+ goals

29%

Mérida AD 3+ goals

9%

Alcorcon 1+ goals

70%

Alcorcon 2+ goals

33%

Alcorcon 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)

45%

Alcorcon (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.37 + Alcorcon defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.06

Alcorcon attack 1.26 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mérida AD scores more

32%

level

29%

Alcorcon scores more

39%

Alcorcon at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff