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Alcorcon vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Alcorcon
Alcorcon
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
11/3/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 11Estadio Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Alcorcon51%
×Draw26%
Mérida AD23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alcorcon
1.53
Mérida AD
0.95

Alcorcon creates 61% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Alcorcon
1.61
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

Alcorcon
1.03
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

Alcorcon+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alcorcon ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Alcorcon or draw
77%
Alcorcon or Mérida AD
74%
Draw or Mérida AD
49%

Winning margin

Alcorcon wins by 2+
26%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Alcorcon 1+ goals
78%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
45%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
20%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
61%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
25%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Alcorcon (draw refunded)
68%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alcorcon at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alcorcon attack 1.61 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.53

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + Alcorcon defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Alcorcon scores more
51%
level
26%
Mérida AD scores more
23%

Alcorcon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Alcorcon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Alcorcon vs Mérida AD

Alcorcon and Mérida AD drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Santo Domingo in Alcorcón.