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Mérida AD vs AD Ceuta FC — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Mérida AD
Mérida AD
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
5/25/2024Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 38Estadio Romano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Mérida AD43%
×Draw27%
AD Ceuta FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mérida AD
1.34
AD Ceuta FC
1.06

Mérida AD creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mérida AD
1.47
AD Ceuta FC
1.00

allows per match

Mérida AD
1.11
AD Ceuta FC
1.21

finishing

Mérida AD+0.00on par
AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mérida AD ↓

AD Ceuta FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mérida AD or draw
70%
Mérida AD or AD Ceuta FC
73%
Draw or AD Ceuta FC
57%

Winning margin

Mérida AD wins by 2+
20%
AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mérida AD 1+ goals
74%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
39%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
15%
AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
65%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
29%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mérida AD (draw refunded)
59%
AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mérida AD at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.11 · 38 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.21 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mérida AD attack 1.47 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.00 + Mérida AD defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mérida AD scores more
43%
level
27%
AD Ceuta FC scores more
30%

Mérida AD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mérida AD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Mérida AD 3–2 AD Ceuta FC

Mérida AD beat AD Ceuta FC 3-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Romano in Mérida.