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AD Ceuta FC vs Mérida AD — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

AD Ceuta FC
AD Ceuta FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mérida AD
Mérida AD
12/17/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AD Ceuta FC55%
×Draw26%
Mérida AD20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Ceuta FC
1.55
Mérida AD
0.81

AD Ceuta FC creates 91% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC
1.66
Mérida AD
0.87

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC
0.76
Mérida AD
1.45

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par
Mérida AD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Mérida AD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw
80%
AD Ceuta FC or Mérida AD
74%
Draw or Mérida AD
45%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+
29%
Mérida AD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals
79%
AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals
46%
AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals
20%
Mérida AD 1+ goals
56%
Mérida AD 2+ goals
19%
Mérida AD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)
74%
Mérida AD (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.76 · 38 matches

Mérida AD away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.66 + Mérida AD defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.55

Mérida AD attack 0.87 + AD Ceuta FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more
55%
level
26%
Mérida AD scores more
20%

AD Ceuta FC at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: AD Ceuta FC 1–1 Mérida AD

AD Ceuta FC and Mérida AD drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube in Ceuta.