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Mercedes vs Argentino Rosario — Primera C 2026

Mercedes
Mercedes
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Argentino Rosario
Argentino Rosario
4/11/2026Primera CPrimera C · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Mercedes38%
×Draw30%
Argentino Rosario32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mercedes
1.11
Argentino Rosario
1.00

Mercedes creates 11% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 47 away

creates per match

Mercedes
0.92
Argentino Rosario
1.11

allows per match

Mercedes
0.88
Argentino Rosario
1.30

finishing

Mercedes+0.00on par
Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercedes ↓

Argentino Rosario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mercedes or draw
68%
Mercedes or Argentino Rosario
70%
Draw or Argentino Rosario
62%

Winning margin

Mercedes wins by 2+
15%
Argentino Rosario wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mercedes 1+ goals
67%
Mercedes 2+ goals
30%
Mercedes 3+ goals
10%
Argentino Rosario 1+ goals
63%
Argentino Rosario 2+ goals
26%
Argentino Rosario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mercedes (draw refunded)
54%
Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mercedes at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.88 · 48 matches

Argentino Rosario away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mercedes attack 0.92 + Argentino Rosario defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.11

Argentino Rosario attack 1.11 + Mercedes defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mercedes scores more
38%
level
30%
Argentino Rosario scores more
32%

Mercedes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mercedes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mercedes vs Argentino Rosario

Mercedes beat Argentino Rosario 1-0 in Primera C on April 11, 2026.