Argentino Rosario 2–0 Mercedes: Result & Stats

Argentino Rosario

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mercedes

2/24/2024

Primera C · Apertura - 4Estadio José María Olaeta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Argentino Rosario48%

×Draw30%

Mercedes23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Argentino RosarioExpected goals in this matchMercedes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.76

Argentino Rosario

1.24

Mercedes

0.76

Argentino Rosario creates 63% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 49 away

1.30

creates per match

0.65

0.86

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Argentino Rosario

1.30

Mercedes

0.65

allows per match

Argentino Rosario

0.86

Mercedes

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Argentino Rosario+0.00on par

Mercedes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentino Rosario ↓

Mercedes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Argentino Rosario or draw

77%

Argentino Rosario or Mercedes

70%

Draw or Mercedes

52%

Winning margin

Argentino Rosario wins by 2+

22%

Mercedes wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Argentino Rosario 1+ goals

71%

Argentino Rosario 2+ goals

35%

Argentino Rosario 3+ goals

13%

Mercedes 1+ goals

53%

Mercedes 2+ goals

18%

Mercedes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Argentino Rosario (draw refunded)

68%

Mercedes (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentino Rosario at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Mercedes away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.18 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentino Rosario attack 1.30 + Mercedes defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Mercedes attack 0.65 + Argentino Rosario defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Argentino Rosario scores more

48%

level

30%

Mercedes scores more

23%

Argentino Rosario at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Argentino Rosario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff