Mercadal 0–2 Ibiza Islas Pitiusas: Result & Stats

Mercadal

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Juanca Alarcón 21'

Xesc Navalón 6'

1/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 17Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mercadal25%

×Draw26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercadalExpected goals in this matchIbiza Islas Pitiusas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.49

Mercadal

0.98

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.49

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 52% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

1.38

creates per match

2.00

0.98

allows per match

0.59

creates per match

Mercadal

1.38

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.00

allows per match

Mercadal

0.98

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas →

0–08%

0–113%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw

51%

Mercadal or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

74%

Draw or Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

75%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals

62%

Mercadal 2+ goals

26%

Mercadal 3+ goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

77%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

44%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)

34%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.59 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.00 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mercadal scores more

25%

level

26%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

49%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

Xesc Navalón

21'

Juanca Alarcón

46'

Ignasi Dalmedo← Roberto Pulido

46'

Izan Canet← Daniel Peña

58'

Rubén Carreras← Raúl Marqués

66'

Mario Riquelme← Xesc Navalón

74'

Sergi Pons← Javi Hernández

77'

Luis Martinez← Pepo

78'

Jorge Bengoetxea← Marquitos

86'

Roberto Fernández← Álex Sánchez

86'

Airam López← Juanca Alarcón

Mercadal

Ibiza

▼

⚽

▼

Navalón

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Lluis Vidal

46'▲Ignasi Dalmedo←▼Roberto Pulido

46'▲Izan Canet←▼Daniel Peña

58'▲Rubén Carreras←▼Raúl Marqués

74'▲Sergi Pons←▼Javi Hernández

77'▲Luis Martinez←▼Pepo

Mercadal substitutes

DalmedoCanetCarrerasPonsMartinez

Manager: Raúl Casañ

66'▲Mario Riquelme←▼Xesc Navalón

78'▲Jorge Bengoetxea←▼Marquitos

86'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

86'▲Airam López←▼Juanca Alarcón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

RiquelmeBengoetxeaFernándezLópez

Match Recap: Mercadal vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Mercadal 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on January 20, 2024.

Goals: Xesc Navalón (6'), Juanca Alarcón (21').

The match was played at Estadio San Martì in Menorca.

Mercadal vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Mercadal vs Ibiza Islas Pitiusas