Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3–0 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Mercadal

Álex Sánchez 54'

Carlos Inglada 35'

Juanca Alarcón 27'

5/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Camp de futbol des Puig d'en Valls

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas65%

×Draw22%

Mercadal13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ibiza Islas PitiusasExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.64

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

1.79

Mercadal

0.64

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas creates 180% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 86 away

2.14

creates per match

0.84

0.44

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

2.14

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas

0.44

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas ↓

Mercadal →

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or draw

87%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas or Mercadal

78%

Draw or Mercadal

35%

Winning margin

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas wins by 2+

38%

Mercadal wins by 2+

Team goals

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 1+ goals

83%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 2+ goals

53%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas 3+ goals

26%

Mercadal 1+ goals

47%

Mercadal 2+ goals

14%

Mercadal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas (draw refunded)

84%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.44 · 43 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas attack 2.14 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.79

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Ibiza Islas Pitiusas defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 65%?"

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas scores more

65%

level

22%

Mercadal scores more

13%

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Ibiza Islas Pitiusas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Juanca Alarcón

35'

Carlos Inglada

52'

Sergi Pons← Javi Hernández

54'

Álex Sánchez

61'

Dani Sales← Jorge Bengoetxea

61'

Marquitos← F. Núñez

61'

A. Sidibé← Daniel Peña

72'

Felipao← Juanca Alarcón

72'

Izan Canet← Joan Coll

78'

Roberto Fernández← Álex Sánchez

78'

Eric Llamas← Xesc Navalón

Ibiza

Mercadal

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Alarcón

⚽

▼

Sánchez

Manager: Raúl Casañ

61'▲Dani Sales←▼Jorge Bengoetxea

61'▲Marquitos←▼F. Núñez

72'▲Felipao←▼Juanca Alarcón

78'▲Roberto Fernández←▼Álex Sánchez

78'▲Eric Llamas←▼Xesc Navalón

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas substitutes

SalesMarquitosFelipaoFernándezLlamas

Manager: Lluis Vidal

52'▲Sergi Pons←▼Javi Hernández

61'▲A. Sidibé←▼Daniel Peña

72'▲Izan Canet←▼Joan Coll

Mercadal substitutes

PonsSidibéCanet

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas beat Mercadal 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Juanca Alarcón (27'), Carlos Inglada (35'), Álex Sánchez (54').

The match was played at Camp de futbol des Puig d'en Valls in Ibiza.

Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ibiza Islas Pitiusas vs Mercadal