Mercadal 2–0 Arenal: Result & Stats

Mercadal

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arenal

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 3Estadio San Martì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mercadal58%

×Draw24%

Arenal17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MercadalExpected goals in this matchArenal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.78

Mercadal

1.66

Arenal

0.78

Mercadal creates 113% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 17 away

1.38

creates per match

0.59

0.98

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Mercadal

1.38

Arenal

0.59

allows per match

Mercadal

0.98

Arenal

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mercadal+0.00on par

Arenal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mercadal ↓

Arenal →

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mercadal or draw

83%

Mercadal or Arenal

76%

Draw or Arenal

42%

Winning margin

Mercadal wins by 2+

32%

Arenal wins by 2+

Team goals

Mercadal 1+ goals

81%

Mercadal 2+ goals

49%

Mercadal 3+ goals

23%

Arenal 1+ goals

54%

Arenal 2+ goals

18%

Arenal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mercadal (draw refunded)

77%

Arenal (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mercadal at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.98 · 86 matches

Arenal away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mercadal attack 1.38 + Arenal defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.66

Arenal attack 0.59 + Mercadal defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mercadal scores more

58%

level

24%

Arenal scores more

17%

Mercadal at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mercadal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff