Arenal 1–1 Mercadal: Result & Stats

Arenal

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mercadal

2/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 20Estadio Son Verí

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenal38%

×Draw27%

Mercadal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArenalExpected goals in this matchMercadal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.19

Arenal

1.25

Mercadal

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

1.06

creates per match

0.84

1.53

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Arenal

1.06

Mercadal

0.84

allows per match

Arenal

1.53

Mercadal

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenal+0.00on par

Mercadal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenal ↓

Mercadal →

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arenal or draw

65%

Arenal or Mercadal

73%

Draw or Mercadal

62%

Winning margin

Arenal wins by 2+

16%

Mercadal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Arenal 1+ goals

71%

Arenal 2+ goals

36%

Arenal 3+ goals

13%

Mercadal 1+ goals

70%

Mercadal 2+ goals

33%

Mercadal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Arenal (draw refunded)

52%

Mercadal (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenal at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

Mercadal away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.45 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenal attack 1.06 + Mercadal defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mercadal attack 0.84 + Arenal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arenal scores more

38%

level

27%

Mercadal scores more

35%

Arenal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arenal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff