Merani Tbilisi 3–2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi

Merani Tbilisi

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

4/25/2023

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 9Nutsubidzis Sapekhburto Tsentri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Merani Tbilisi44%

×Draw24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani TbilisiExpected goals in this matchLokomotivi Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.42

Merani Tbilisi

1.70

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.42

Merani Tbilisi creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 55 away

1.76

creates per match

1.22

1.61

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Merani Tbilisi

1.76

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.22

allows per match

Merani Tbilisi

1.61

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Tbilisi ↓

Lokomotivi Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Merani Tbilisi or draw

68%

Merani Tbilisi or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

76%

Draw or Lokomotivi Tbilisi

56%

Winning margin

Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+

23%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals

82%

Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals

51%

Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals

24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals

76%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals

41%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)

58%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.61 · 66 matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.70

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.22 + Merani Tbilisi defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merani Tbilisi scores more

44%

level

24%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more

32%

Merani Tbilisi at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Merani Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff