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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Merani Tbilisi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Merani Tbilisi
Merani Tbilisi
12/1/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 36Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Lokomotivi Tbilisi50%
×Draw22%
Merani Tbilisi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.90
Merani Tbilisi
1.38

Lokomotivi Tbilisi creates 38% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 64 away

creates per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.76
Merani Tbilisi
1.39

allows per match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.37
Merani Tbilisi
2.03

finishing

Lokomotivi Tbilisi+0.00on par
Merani Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotivi Tbilisi ↓

Merani Tbilisi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Lokomotivi Tbilisi or draw
72%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi or Merani Tbilisi
78%
Draw or Merani Tbilisi
50%

Winning margin

Lokomotivi Tbilisi wins by 2+
28%
Merani Tbilisi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lokomotivi Tbilisi 1+ goals
85%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 2+ goals
56%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi 3+ goals
29%
Merani Tbilisi 1+ goals
75%
Merani Tbilisi 2+ goals
40%
Merani Tbilisi 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lokomotivi Tbilisi (draw refunded)
64%
Merani Tbilisi (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.37 · 54 matches

Merani Tbilisi away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.03 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotivi Tbilisi attack 1.76 + Merani Tbilisi defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.90

Merani Tbilisi attack 1.39 + Lokomotivi Tbilisi defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lokomotivi Tbilisi scores more
50%
level
22%
Merani Tbilisi scores more
28%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lokomotivi Tbilisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Lokomotivi Tbilisi 5–0 Merani Tbilisi

Lokomotivi Tbilisi beat Merani Tbilisi 5-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Mikheil Meskhis Sakhelobis Stadionis Satadarigo Moedani in Tbilisi.