Merani Martvili 0–4 Kolkheti Poti: Result & Stats

Merani Martvili

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Kolkheti Poti

8/29/2023

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 24Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Merani Martvili45%

×Draw24%

Kolkheti Poti31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani MartviliExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Poti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.29

Merani Martvili

1.61

Kolkheti Poti

1.29

Merani Martvili creates 25% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 46 away

1.51

creates per match

1.17

1.41

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Merani Martvili

1.51

Kolkheti Poti

1.17

allows per match

Merani Martvili

1.41

Kolkheti Poti

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Kolkheti Poti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw

69%

Merani Martvili or Kolkheti Poti

76%

Draw or Kolkheti Poti

55%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

23%

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

80%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

48%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

22%

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals

72%

Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals

37%

Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

59%

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.61

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Merani Martvili scores more

45%

level

24%

Kolkheti Poti scores more

31%

Merani Martvili at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff