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Kolkheti Poti vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
5/23/2023Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 15Stadioni Pazisi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Kolkheti Poti46%
×Draw25%
Merani Martvili29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolkheti Poti
1.59
Merani Martvili
1.21

Kolkheti Poti creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 83 away

creates per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.54
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Kolkheti Poti
1.15
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolkheti Poti ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kolkheti Poti or draw
71%
Kolkheti Poti or Merani Martvili
75%
Draw or Merani Martvili
54%

Winning margin

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
24%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
80%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
47%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
21%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
70%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
34%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
61%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolkheti Poti at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 46 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.54 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.59

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolkheti Poti scores more
46%
level
25%
Merani Martvili scores more
29%

Kolkheti Poti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kolkheti Poti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolkheti Poti vs Merani Martvili

Kolkheti Poti beat Merani Martvili 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on May 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Pazisi in Poti.