Merani Martvili 3–2 Chikhura Sachkhere

Merani Martvili

FT

3 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Chikhura Sachkhere

4/24/2021

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 9Stadioni Murtaz Khurtsilava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Merani Martvili64%

×Draw20%

Chikhura Sachkhere16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Merani MartviliExpected goals in this matchChikhura Sachkhere

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

0.92

Merani Martvili

2.06

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.92

Merani Martvili creates 124% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

0.44

1.41

allows per match

2.61

creates per match

Merani Martvili

1.51

Chikhura Sachkhere

0.44

allows per match

Merani Martvili

1.41

Chikhura Sachkhere

2.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merani Martvili ↓

Chikhura Sachkhere →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Merani Martvili or draw

84%

Merani Martvili or Chikhura Sachkhere

80%

Draw or Chikhura Sachkhere

36%

Winning margin

Merani Martvili wins by 2+

39%

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Merani Martvili 1+ goals

87%

Merani Martvili 2+ goals

61%

Merani Martvili 3+ goals

34%

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals

60%

Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals

23%

Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Merani Martvili (draw refunded)

80%

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merani Martvili at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 83 matches

Chikhura Sachkhere away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.61 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merani Martvili attack 1.51 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 2.06

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.44 + Merani Martvili defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Merani Martvili scores more

64%

level

20%

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more

16%

Merani Martvili at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff