Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chikhura Sachkhere vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Chikhura Sachkhere
Chikhura Sachkhere
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
6/23/2021Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 18Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Chikhura Sachkhere23%
×Draw21%
Merani Martvili55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chikhura Sachkhere
1.26
Merani Martvili
2.05

Merani Martvili creates 63% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 83 away

creates per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
0.89
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Chikhura Sachkhere
2.83
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Chikhura Sachkhere+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chikhura Sachkhere ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chikhura Sachkhere or draw
45%
Chikhura Sachkhere or Merani Martvili
79%
Draw or Merani Martvili
77%

Winning margin

Chikhura Sachkhere wins by 2+
9%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Chikhura Sachkhere 1+ goals
72%
Chikhura Sachkhere 2+ goals
36%
Chikhura Sachkhere 3+ goals
13%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
87%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
61%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Chikhura Sachkhere (draw refunded)
30%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chikhura Sachkhere at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.83 · 18 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chikhura Sachkhere attack 0.89 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Chikhura Sachkhere defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Chikhura Sachkhere scores more
23%
level
21%
Merani Martvili scores more
55%

Merani Martvili at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Merani Martvili will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Chikhura Sachkhere 1–2 Merani Martvili

Merani Martvili beat Chikhura Sachkhere 2-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 23, 2021.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Ivantsminda.