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Meppen U19 vs Hannover 96 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Meppen U19
Meppen U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hannover 96 U19
Hannover 96 U19
2/10/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 16Waldstadion Kunstrasen D

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Meppen U1937%
×Draw22%
Hannover 96 U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Meppen U19
1.79
Hannover 96 U19
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Meppen U19
1.77
Hannover 96 U19
2.03

allows per match

Meppen U19
1.75
Hannover 96 U19
1.80

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par
Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Hannover 96 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw
59%
Meppen U19 or Hannover 96 U19
78%
Draw or Hannover 96 U19
63%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+
19%
Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals
83%
Meppen U19 2+ goals
53%
Meppen U19 3+ goals
26%
Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals
85%
Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals
56%
Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)
47%
Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Hannover 96 U19 away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.80 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.79

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.03 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Meppen U19 scores more
37%
level
22%
Hannover 96 U19 scores more
41%

Hannover 96 U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meppen U19 1 – 2 Hannover 96 U19

Hannover 96 U19 beat Meppen U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion Kunstrasen D in Meppen.