Hannover 96 U19 1–1 Meppen U19: Result & Stats

Hannover 96 U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Meppen U19

8/23/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 396 Das Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Hannover 96 U1956%

×Draw19%

Meppen U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hannover 96 U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.41

1.56

Hannover 96 U19

2.41

Meppen U19

1.56

Hannover 96 U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 51 away

2.27

creates per match

1.69

1.43

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Hannover 96 U19

2.27

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

Hannover 96 U19

1.43

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hannover 96 U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hannover 96 U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Hannover 96 U19 or draw

75%

Hannover 96 U19 or Meppen U19

81%

Draw or Meppen U19

44%

Winning margin

Hannover 96 U19 wins by 2+

35%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hannover 96 U19 1+ goals

91%

Hannover 96 U19 2+ goals

69%

Hannover 96 U19 3+ goals

43%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

79%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

46%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Hannover 96 U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hannover 96 U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.43 · 67 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hannover 96 U19 attack 2.27 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.41

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Hannover 96 U19 defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hannover 96 U19 scores more

56%

level

19%

Meppen U19 scores more

25%

Hannover 96 U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Hannover 96 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff