Meppen U19 1–2 Eintr. Norderstedt U19

Meppen U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

M. Meyering 90'

A. Diachun 45+1'

M. Mbodje 31'

5/3/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 12Nebenplatz Hänsch-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Meppen U1955%

×Draw19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U1926%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meppen U19Expected goals in this matchEintr. Norderstedt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

1.79

Meppen U19

2.63

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.79

Meppen U19 creates 47% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 6 away

1.77

creates per match

1.83

1.75

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Meppen U19

1.77

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

1.83

allows per match

Meppen U19

1.75

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw

74%

Meppen U19 or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

81%

Draw or Eintr. Norderstedt U19

45%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

36%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals

93%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

73%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

48%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

83%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

53%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 away — creates 1.83, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.63

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 1.83 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Meppen U19 scores more

55%

level

19%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

26%

Meppen U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

M. Mbodje

45+1'

A. Diachun

55'

J. Wardius← T. Frimpong

55'

S. Jung← K. Perehudov

57'

B. Klein← L. Jürgens

57'

L. Thöle← C. Decker

57'

S. Roga← H. Wittrock

66'

J. Dünnebacke← M. Klaß

75'

H. Riebau← M. Mbodje

78'

E. Cotor← S. Hüer

78'

P. Heinle← M. Kolhoff

90+3'

E. Pasalic← L. Alpsoy

90+3'

T. Chen← A. Diachun

90'

M. Meyering

Meppen

Eintr.

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mbodje

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Stammermann

57'▲B. Klein←▼L. Jürgens

57'▲L. Thöle←▼C. Decker

57'▲S. Roga←▼H. Wittrock

66'▲J. Dünnebacke←▼M. Klaß

78'▲E. Cotor←▼S. Hüer

78'▲P. Heinle←▼M. Kolhoff

Meppen U19 substitutes

KleinThöleRogaDünnebackeCotorHeinleWalker

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

55'▲J. Wardius←▼T. Frimpong

55'▲S. Jung←▼K. Perehudov

75'▲H. Riebau←▼M. Mbodje

90+3'▲E. Pasalic←▼L. Alpsoy

90+3'▲T. Chen←▼A. Diachun

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

WardiusJungRiebauPasalicChenRalfsRomaniuk