Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3–4 Meppen U19

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Meppen U19

D. Duah 73', 61'

M. Mbodje 51'

B. Klein 71'

S. Roga 55'

C. Decker 14'

M. Herrmann 12'

3/1/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 5Kunstrasenplatz Garstedt 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Eintr. Norderstedt U1939%

×Draw19%

Meppen U1942%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintr. Norderstedt U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.36

2.43

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.36

Meppen U19

2.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 51 away

2.17

creates per match

1.69

3.17

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

2.17

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19

3.17

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintr. Norderstedt U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or draw

58%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 or Meppen U19

81%

Draw or Meppen U19

61%

Winning margin

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 wins by 2+

22%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 1+ goals

90%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 2+ goals

68%

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 3+ goals

41%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

91%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

69%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

43%

Draw no bet

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 at home — creates 2.17, concedes 3.17 · 6 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 attack 2.17 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.36

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + Eintr. Norderstedt U19 defence 3.17 → ÷2 → 2.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 scores more

39%

level

19%

Meppen U19 scores more

42%

Meppen U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

14'

51'

55'

61'

71'

J. Dünnebacke← J. Dindić

71'

L. Jürgens← S. Hüer

71'

B. Klein

73'

D. Duah

79'

J. Soobin← L. Rikanovic

79'

L. Thöle← S. Roga

87'

N. Schöning← L. Alpsoy

88'

P. Heinle← M. Kolhoff

Eintr.

Meppen

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Q. Bajraktaraj

79'▲J. Soobin←▼L. Rikanovic

87'▲N. Schöning←▼L. Alpsoy

Eintr. Norderstedt U19 substitutes

SoobinSchöningRiebauFaizyPerehudovRodeRomaniuk

Manager: C. Stammermann

71'▲J. Dünnebacke←▼J. Dindić

71'▲L. Jürgens←▼S. Hüer

79'▲L. Thöle←▼S. Roga

88'▲P. Heinle←▼M. Kolhoff

Meppen U19 substitutes

DünnebackeJürgensThöleHeinleCotorGerritzenReece