Meppen U19 3–1 BAK 07 U19: Result & Stats

Meppen U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BAK 07 U19

W .Docter 90+4'

L. Prasse 89'

O. Marx 51'

A. Lubaki 44'

8/14/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 1Waldstadion Hauptplatz A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Meppen U1954%

×Draw20%

BAK 07 U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Meppen U19Expected goals in this matchBAK 07 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.54

Meppen U19

2.28

BAK 07 U19

1.54

Meppen U19 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 33 away

1.77

creates per match

1.33

1.75

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Meppen U19

1.77

BAK 07 U19

1.33

allows per match

Meppen U19

1.75

BAK 07 U19

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Meppen U19+0.00on par

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Meppen U19 ↓

BAK 07 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Meppen U19 or draw

74%

Meppen U19 or BAK 07 U19

80%

Draw or BAK 07 U19

46%

Winning margin

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

33%

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Meppen U19 1+ goals

90%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

66%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

39%

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

79%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

45%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

68%

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Meppen U19 at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

BAK 07 U19 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.79 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Meppen U19 attack 1.77 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.28

BAK 07 U19 attack 1.33 + Meppen U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Meppen U19 scores more

54%

level

20%

BAK 07 U19 scores more

26%

Meppen U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Meppen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

44'

51'

55'

64'

74'

H. Berjaoui← J. Kliti

84'

T. Berling← L. Gravemann

88'

M. Kalini← O. Iraqi

88'

N. Kardam← B. Kizildemir

89'

L. Prasse

90+3'

W .Docter← S. Hoffmann

90+4'

W .Docter

Meppen

BAK

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Marx

Antoni

▼

Hoffmann

Manager: C. Stammermann

64'▲M. Zumdieck←▼O. Marx

84'▲T. Berling←▼L. Gravemann

90+3'▲W .Docter←▼S. Hoffmann

Meppen U19 substitutes

ZumdieckBerling.DocterHermesHagemannZumdieckPieper

Manager: C. Brauer

55'▲D.Kanyi←▼A. Akdağ

74'▲H. Berjaoui←▼J. Kliti

88'▲M. Kalini←▼O. Iraqi

88'▲N. Kardam←▼B. Kizildemir

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

D.KanyiBerjaouiKaliniKardamSevimAhmadKizmaz