BAK 07 U19 5–2 Meppen U19: Result & Stats

BAK 07 U19

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 0

Meppen U19

F. Yosma 86'

F. Hartmann 81'

I. Danfa 45'

Fernando Baldé 39'

A. Farhadi 9'

A. Muja 90+3'

M. Klaß 47'

4/27/2025

U19 Bundesliga · 2nd Phase Group B - 11Poststadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

BAK 07 U1948%

×Draw20%

Meppen U1932%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BAK 07 U19Expected goals in this matchMeppen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.86

BAK 07 U19

2.29

Meppen U19

1.86

BAK 07 U19 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 51 away

2.03

creates per match

1.69

2.03

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Meppen U19

1.69

allows per match

BAK 07 U19

2.03

Meppen U19

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BAK 07 U19+0.00on par

Meppen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BAK 07 U19 ↓

Meppen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

BAK 07 U19 or draw

68%

BAK 07 U19 or Meppen U19

80%

Draw or Meppen U19

52%

Winning margin

BAK 07 U19 wins by 2+

28%

Meppen U19 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BAK 07 U19 1+ goals

90%

BAK 07 U19 2+ goals

66%

BAK 07 U19 3+ goals

40%

Meppen U19 1+ goals

84%

Meppen U19 2+ goals

55%

Meppen U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

BAK 07 U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Meppen U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BAK 07 U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 2.03 · 33 matches

Meppen U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BAK 07 U19 attack 2.03 + Meppen U19 defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.29

Meppen U19 attack 1.69 + BAK 07 U19 defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

BAK 07 U19 scores more

48%

level

20%

Meppen U19 scores more

32%

BAK 07 U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "BAK 07 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

39'

45'

46'

47'

51'

O. Balliu← Bilal Youssef

60'

F. Hartmann← A. Keles

75'

F. Yosma← W. Hildebrandt

75'

J. Dindić← J. Frohne

75'

P. Heinle← M. Kolhoff

75'

S. Roga← M. Klaß

81'

82'

86'

90+3'

BAK

Meppen

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: J. Eckert

51'▲O. Balliu←▼Bilal Youssef

60'▲F. Hartmann←▼A. Keles

75'▲F. Yosma←▼W. Hildebrandt

BAK 07 U19 substitutes

BalliuHartmannYosmaDietrichTürkayDemırhanSchmidt

Manager: C. Stammermann

46'▲L. Thöle←▼L. Jürgens

75'▲J. Dindić←▼J. Frohne

75'▲P. Heinle←▼M. Kolhoff

75'▲S. Roga←▼M. Klaß

82'▲E. Cotor←▼B. Klein

Meppen U19 substitutes

ThöleDindićHeinleRogaCotorReece

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Meppen U19

BAK 07 U19 beat Meppen U19 5-2 in U19 Bundesliga on April 27, 2025.

Goals: A. Farhadi (9'), Fernando Baldé (39'), I. Danfa (45'), M. Klaß (47'), F. Hartmann (81'), F. Yosma (86'), A. Muja (90+3').

The match was played at Poststadion in Berlin.

BAK 07 U19 vs Meppen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: BAK 07 U19 vs Meppen U19