Menzel Nour 0–2 M'saken: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Menzel Nour

FT

0 – 2

M'saken

2/20/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour49%

×Draw30%

M'saken21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel NourExpected goals in this matchM'saken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.69

Menzel Nour

1.23

M'saken

0.69

Menzel Nour creates 78% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 59 away

1.25

creates per match

0.63

0.75

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Menzel Nour

1.25

M'saken

0.63

allows per match

Menzel Nour

0.75

M'saken

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

M'saken+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

M'saken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw

79%

Menzel Nour or M'saken

70%

Draw or M'saken

51%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

22%

M'saken wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

71%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

35%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

13%

M'saken 1+ goals

50%

M'saken 2+ goals

15%

M'saken 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

70%

M'saken (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

M'saken away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.20 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + M'saken defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.23

M'saken attack 0.63 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Menzel Nour scores more

49%

level

30%

M'saken scores more

21%

Menzel Nour at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff