M'saken 1–2 Menzel Nour: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

M'saken

FT

1 – 2

Menzel Nour

3/28/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 9Stade Municipal de M'saken

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

M'saken59%

×Draw26%

Menzel Nour15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

M'sakenExpected goals in this matchMenzel Nour

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.60

M'saken

1.49

Menzel Nour

0.60

M'saken creates 148% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 11 away

0.98

creates per match

0.45

0.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

M'saken

0.98

Menzel Nour

0.45

allows per match

M'saken

0.76

Menzel Nour

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

M'saken+0.00on par

Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

M'saken ↓

Menzel Nour →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

M'saken or draw

85%

M'saken or Menzel Nour

74%

Draw or Menzel Nour

41%

Winning margin

M'saken wins by 2+

31%

Menzel Nour wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

M'saken 1+ goals

77%

M'saken 2+ goals

44%

M'saken 3+ goals

19%

Menzel Nour 1+ goals

45%

Menzel Nour 2+ goals

12%

Menzel Nour 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

M'saken (draw refunded)

80%

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

M'saken at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

M'saken attack 0.98 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.49

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + M'saken defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

M'saken scores more

59%

level

26%

Menzel Nour scores more

15%

M'saken at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "M'saken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff