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Menzel Nour vs Jerba — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Jerba
Jerba
M. Jrad 45'
H. Chaibi 38'
A. Najmeddine 20'
2/20/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Menzel Nour50%
×Draw30%
Jerba20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Nour
1.24
Jerba
0.68

Menzel Nour creates 82% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 48 away

creates per match

Menzel Nour
1.25
Jerba
0.60

allows per match

Menzel Nour
0.75
Jerba
1.23

finishing

Menzel Nour+0.00on par
Jerba+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Nour ↓

Jerba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Nour or draw
80%
Menzel Nour or Jerba
70%
Draw or Jerba
50%

Winning margin

Menzel Nour wins by 2+
23%
Jerba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Menzel Nour 1+ goals
71%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
35%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
13%
Jerba 1+ goals
49%
Jerba 2+ goals
15%
Jerba 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
71%
Jerba (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Nour at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Jerba away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.23 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Nour attack 1.25 + Jerba defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.24

Jerba attack 0.60 + Menzel Nour defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Menzel Nour scores more
50%
level
30%
Jerba scores more
20%

Menzel Nour at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Menzel Nour will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
A. Najmeddine
38'
H. Chaibi
45'
M. Jrad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Nour 3–0 Jerba

Menzel Nour beat Jerba 3-0 in Ligue 2 on February 20, 2022.

Goals: A. Najmeddine (20'), H. Chaibi (38'), M. Jrad (45').

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Menzel Ennour in Menzel Ennour.