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Jerba vs Menzel Nour — Ligue 2 2020

Jerba
Jerba
FT
3 – 0
Menzel Nour
Menzel Nour
M. Filali 76', 25'
W. Mejri 49' (pen)
11/20/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Arkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jerba60%
×Draw26%
Menzel Nour14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jerba
1.50
Menzel Nour
0.58

Jerba creates 159% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 11 away

creates per match

Jerba
1.00
Menzel Nour
0.45

allows per match

Jerba
0.72
Menzel Nour
2.00

finishing

Jerba+0.00on par
Menzel Nour+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jerba ↓

Menzel Nour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Jerba or draw
86%
Jerba or Menzel Nour
74%
Draw or Menzel Nour
40%

Winning margin

Jerba wins by 2+
32%
Menzel Nour wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jerba 1+ goals
78%
Jerba 2+ goals
44%
Jerba 3+ goals
19%
Menzel Nour 1+ goals
44%
Menzel Nour 2+ goals
12%
Menzel Nour 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Jerba (draw refunded)
81%
Menzel Nour (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jerba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.72 · 47 matches

Menzel Nour away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jerba attack 1.00 + Menzel Nour defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Menzel Nour attack 0.45 + Jerba defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Jerba scores more
60%
level
26%
Menzel Nour scores more
14%

Jerba at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Jerba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
M. Filali
49'
W. MejriPenalty
76'
M. Filali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jerba vs Menzel Nour

Jerba beat Menzel Nour 3-0 in Ligue 2 on November 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Filali (25', 76'), W. Mejri (49' pen).

The match was played at Stade Arkou in Arkou.