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Menzel Bouzelfa vs AS Gabes — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bouzelfa
Menzel Bouzelfa
FT
1 – 2
AS Gabes
AS Gabes
2/28/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 5Stade Arbi Farfra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Menzel Bouzelfa38%
×Draw29%
AS Gabes33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.14
AS Gabes
1.04

Menzel Bouzelfa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 36 away

creates per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.00
AS Gabes
0.89

allows per match

Menzel Bouzelfa
1.20
AS Gabes
1.28

finishing

Menzel Bouzelfa+0.00on par
AS Gabes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bouzelfa ↓

AS Gabes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Menzel Bouzelfa or draw
67%
Menzel Bouzelfa or AS Gabes
71%
Draw or AS Gabes
62%

Winning margin

Menzel Bouzelfa wins by 2+
16%
AS Gabes wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Menzel Bouzelfa 1+ goals
68%
Menzel Bouzelfa 2+ goals
32%
Menzel Bouzelfa 3+ goals
11%
AS Gabes 1+ goals
65%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
28%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bouzelfa (draw refunded)
54%
AS Gabes (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bouzelfa at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

AS Gabes away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bouzelfa attack 1.00 + AS Gabes defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

AS Gabes attack 0.89 + Menzel Bouzelfa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Menzel Bouzelfa scores more
38%
level
29%
AS Gabes scores more
33%

Menzel Bouzelfa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Menzel Bouzelfa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Menzel Bouzelfa 1–2 AS Gabes

AS Gabes beat Menzel Bouzelfa 2-1 in Ligue 2 on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Arbi Farfra in Menzel Bouzelfa.