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AS Gabes vs Menzel Bouzelfa — Ligue 2 2020

AS Gabes
AS Gabes
FT
0 – 0
Menzel Bouzelfa
Menzel Bouzelfa
4/3/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 10Stade de Zrig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

AS Gabes44%
×Draw40%
Menzel Bouzelfa16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Gabes
0.84
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.39

AS Gabes creates 115% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 5 away

creates per match

AS Gabes
1.49
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.20

allows per match

AS Gabes
0.57
Menzel Bouzelfa
0.20

finishing

AS Gabes+0.00on par
Menzel Bouzelfa+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Under
  • Under87
  • Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

82%No
  • No82
  • Yes18

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Gabes ↓

Menzel Bouzelfa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–029%
0–111%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
71%29%1.5
35%65%2.5
13%87%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

AS Gabes or draw
84%
AS Gabes or Menzel Bouzelfa
60%
Draw or Menzel Bouzelfa
56%

Winning margin

AS Gabes wins by 2+
15%
Menzel Bouzelfa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

AS Gabes 1+ goals
57%
AS Gabes 2+ goals
21%
AS Gabes 3+ goals
5%
Menzel Bouzelfa 1+ goals
32%
Menzel Bouzelfa 2+ goals
6%
Menzel Bouzelfa 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

AS Gabes (draw refunded)
73%
Menzel Bouzelfa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
9%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Gabes at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Menzel Bouzelfa away — creates 0.20, concedes 0.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Gabes attack 1.49 + Menzel Bouzelfa defence 0.20 → ÷2 → 0.84

Menzel Bouzelfa attack 0.20 + AS Gabes defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

AS Gabes scores more
44%
level
40%
Menzel Bouzelfa scores more
16%

AS Gabes at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "AS Gabes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AS Gabes vs Menzel Bouzelfa

AS Gabes and Menzel Bouzelfa drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on April 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stade de Zrig in Gabès.