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Menzel Bourguiba vs Korba — Cup 2019

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Korba
Korba
1/19/2025CupCup · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Azaiez Jaballah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba28%
×Draw33%
Korba39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
0.78
Korba
0.97

Korba creates 24% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.75
Korba
1.20

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.75
Korba
0.80

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
Korba+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

Korba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–117%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
61%
Menzel Bourguiba or Korba
67%
Draw or Korba
72%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
9%
Korba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
54%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
18%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
4%
Korba 1+ goals
62%
Korba 2+ goals
25%
Korba 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
42%
Korba (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Korba away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.75 + Korba defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Korba attack 1.20 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
28%
level
33%
Korba scores more
39%

Korba at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Menzel Bourguiba 1–1 Korba

Menzel Bourguiba and Korba drew 1-1 in Cup on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Azaiez Jaballah in Menzel Bourguiba.