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Korba vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
5/17/2025Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 25Stade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Korba63%
×Draw26%
Menzel Bourguiba11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.50
Menzel Bourguiba
0.45

Korba creates 233% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 26 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Korba or draw
89%
Korba or Menzel Bourguiba
74%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
37%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
34%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
78%
Korba 2+ goals
44%
Korba 3+ goals
19%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
36%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
8%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
85%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Korba scores more
63%
level
26%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
11%

Korba at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: Korba 1–2 Menzel Bourguiba

Menzel Bourguiba beat Korba 2-1 in Ligue 2 on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.