Menzel Bourguiba 2–0 CS Hammam-Lif: Result & Stats

Menzel Bourguiba

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CS Hammam-Lif

12/7/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 8Stade Azaiez Jaballah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba38%

×Draw32%

CS Hammam-Lif31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menzel BourguibaExpected goals in this matchCS Hammam-Lif

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.89

Menzel Bourguiba

1.02

CS Hammam-Lif

0.89

Menzel Bourguiba creates 15% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

0.93

0.85

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba

1.00

CS Hammam-Lif

0.93

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba

0.85

CS Hammam-Lif

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

CS Hammam-Lif →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw

69%

Menzel Bourguiba or CS Hammam-Lif

68%

Draw or CS Hammam-Lif

62%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

15%

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

64%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

27%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

8%

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals

59%

CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals

22%

CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

55%

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

CS Hammam-Lif away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

CS Hammam-Lif attack 0.93 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

38%

level

32%

CS Hammam-Lif scores more

31%

Menzel Bourguiba at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff