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CS Hammam-Lif vs Menzel Bourguiba — Ligue 2 2020

CS Hammam-Lif
CS Hammam-Lif
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
4/27/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

CS Hammam-Lif70%
×Draw22%
Menzel Bourguiba8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CS Hammam-Lif
1.74
Menzel Bourguiba
0.42

CS Hammam-Lif creates 314% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 26 away

creates per match

CS Hammam-Lif
1.67
Menzel Bourguiba
0.27

allows per match

CS Hammam-Lif
0.57
Menzel Bourguiba
1.81

finishing

CS Hammam-Lif+0.00on par
Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Hammam-Lif ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CS Hammam-Lif or draw
92%
CS Hammam-Lif or Menzel Bourguiba
78%
Draw or Menzel Bourguiba
30%

Winning margin

CS Hammam-Lif wins by 2+
42%
Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

CS Hammam-Lif 1+ goals
82%
CS Hammam-Lif 2+ goals
52%
CS Hammam-Lif 3+ goals
25%
Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
34%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
7%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

CS Hammam-Lif (draw refunded)
89%
Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Hammam-Lif at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.57 · 58 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Hammam-Lif attack 1.67 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.74

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + CS Hammam-Lif defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

CS Hammam-Lif scores more
70%
level
22%
Menzel Bourguiba scores more
8%

CS Hammam-Lif at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "CS Hammam-Lif will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: CS Hammam-Lif 1–0 Menzel Bourguiba

CS Hammam-Lif beat Menzel Bourguiba 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 27, 2026.