Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Menzel Bourguiba vs AS Agareb — Ligue 2 2020

Menzel Bourguiba
Menzel Bourguiba
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Agareb
AS Agareb
N. Laabidi 43'
S. Ben Salem 88'
2/22/2026Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Menzel Bourguiba50%
×Draw29%
AS Agareb21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Menzel Bourguiba
1.27
AS Agareb
0.71

Menzel Bourguiba creates 79% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Menzel Bourguiba
1.00
AS Agareb
0.58

allows per match

Menzel Bourguiba
0.85
AS Agareb
1.54

finishing

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par
AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menzel Bourguiba ↓

AS Agareb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Menzel Bourguiba or draw
79%
Menzel Bourguiba or AS Agareb
71%
Draw or AS Agareb
50%

Winning margin

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+
23%
AS Agareb wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals
72%
Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals
36%
Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals
14%
AS Agareb 1+ goals
51%
AS Agareb 2+ goals
16%
AS Agareb 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)
71%
AS Agareb (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menzel Bourguiba at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menzel Bourguiba attack 1.00 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Menzel Bourguiba scores more
50%
level
29%
AS Agareb scores more
21%

Menzel Bourguiba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Menzel Bourguiba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
N. Laabidi
88'
S. Ben Salem
90'
R. Affes
90'
G. Boulahmi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Menzel Bourguiba 1 – 1 AS Agareb

Menzel Bourguiba and AS Agareb drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on February 22, 2026.

Goals: N. Laabidi (43'), S. Ben Salem (88').