AS Agareb 1–1 Menzel Bourguiba: Result & Stats

AS Agareb

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Menzel Bourguiba

10/18/2025

Ligue 2 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

AS Agareb56%

×Draw26%

Menzel Bourguiba17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS AgarebExpected goals in this matchMenzel Bourguiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.68

AS Agareb

1.48

Menzel Bourguiba

0.68

AS Agareb creates 118% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.15

creates per match

0.27

1.08

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

AS Agareb

1.15

Menzel Bourguiba

0.27

allows per match

AS Agareb

1.08

Menzel Bourguiba

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Agareb+0.00on par

Menzel Bourguiba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Agareb ↓

Menzel Bourguiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

AS Agareb or draw

83%

AS Agareb or Menzel Bourguiba

74%

Draw or Menzel Bourguiba

44%

Winning margin

AS Agareb wins by 2+

29%

Menzel Bourguiba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

AS Agareb 1+ goals

77%

AS Agareb 2+ goals

43%

AS Agareb 3+ goals

19%

Menzel Bourguiba 1+ goals

49%

Menzel Bourguiba 2+ goals

15%

Menzel Bourguiba 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

AS Agareb (draw refunded)

77%

Menzel Bourguiba (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Agareb at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.08 · 26 matches

Menzel Bourguiba away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Agareb attack 1.15 + Menzel Bourguiba defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Menzel Bourguiba attack 0.27 + AS Agareb defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

AS Agareb scores more

56%

level

26%

Menzel Bourguiba scores more

17%

AS Agareb at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "AS Agareb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff