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Mensajero vs Las Palmas II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
2/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 23Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mensajero43%
×Draw25%
Las Palmas II31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.51
Las Palmas II
1.24

Mensajero creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Las Palmas II
1.45

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Las Palmas II
0.92

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Las Palmas II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Las Palmas II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
69%
Mensajero or Las Palmas II
75%
Draw or Las Palmas II
57%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
21%
Las Palmas II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
78%
Mensajero 2+ goals
44%
Mensajero 3+ goals
19%
Las Palmas II 1+ goals
71%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
35%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
58%
Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Las Palmas II away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Las Palmas II defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.51

Las Palmas II attack 1.45 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mensajero scores more
43%
level
25%
Las Palmas II scores more
31%

Mensajero at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Mensajero 1–0 Las Palmas II

Mensajero beat Las Palmas II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.