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Las Palmas II vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Las Palmas II
Las Palmas II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
2/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 22Anexo Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Las Palmas II62%
×Draw22%
Mensajero16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Las Palmas II
1.83
Mensajero
0.79

Las Palmas II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 76 away

creates per match

Las Palmas II
2.29
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Las Palmas II
0.49
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Las Palmas II+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Las Palmas II ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Las Palmas II or draw
84%
Las Palmas II or Mensajero
78%
Draw or Mensajero
38%

Winning margin

Las Palmas II wins by 2+
36%
Mensajero wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Las Palmas II 1+ goals
84%
Las Palmas II 2+ goals
54%
Las Palmas II 3+ goals
28%
Mensajero 1+ goals
55%
Mensajero 2+ goals
19%
Mensajero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Las Palmas II (draw refunded)
80%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Las Palmas II at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.49 · 49 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Las Palmas II attack 2.29 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Las Palmas II defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Las Palmas II scores more
62%
level
22%
Mensajero scores more
16%

Las Palmas II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Las Palmas II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Las Palmas II 2–0 Mensajero

Las Palmas II beat Mensajero 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Anexo Gran Canaria in Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.