Mensajero 4–1 Güímar: Result & Stats

Mensajero

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Güímar

2/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 25Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Mensajero68%

×Draw19%

Güímar13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MensajeroExpected goals in this matchGüímar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

0.85

Mensajero

2.20

Güímar

0.85

Mensajero creates 159% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

2.10

creates per match

0.68

1.03

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Mensajero

2.10

Güímar

0.68

allows per match

Mensajero

1.03

Güímar

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par

Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Güímar →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw

87%

Mensajero or Güímar

81%

Draw or Güímar

32%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+

44%

Güímar wins by 2+

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals

89%

Mensajero 2+ goals

64%

Mensajero 3+ goals

37%

Güímar 1+ goals

57%

Güímar 2+ goals

21%

Güímar 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)

84%

Güímar (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.20

Güímar attack 0.68 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mensajero scores more

68%

level

19%

Güímar scores more

13%

Mensajero at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff