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Güímar vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Güímar
Güímar
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 3
Mensajero
Mensajero
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 6Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar38%
×Draw25%
Mensajero37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Güímar
1.40
Mensajero
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 28 home / 76 away

creates per match

Güímar
1.43
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Güímar
1.68
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Güímar or draw
63%
Güímar or Mensajero
75%
Draw or Mensajero
62%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+
17%
Mensajero wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals
75%
Güímar 2+ goals
41%
Güímar 3+ goals
17%
Mensajero 1+ goals
75%
Mensajero 2+ goals
40%
Mensajero 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)
51%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Güímar scores more
38%
level
25%
Mensajero scores more
37%

Güímar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Güímar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Güímar 4–3 Mensajero

Güímar beat Mensajero 4-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Tasagaya in Güímar.