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Mensajero vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Mensajero
Mensajero
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
3/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 13Estadio Silvestre Carrillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Mensajero48%
×Draw25%
Atlético Paso27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mensajero
1.54
Atlético Paso
1.08

Mensajero creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 59 away

creates per match

Mensajero
2.10
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Mensajero
1.03
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Mensajero+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mensajero ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mensajero or draw
73%
Mensajero or Atlético Paso
75%
Draw or Atlético Paso
52%

Winning margin

Mensajero wins by 2+
24%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mensajero 1+ goals
79%
Mensajero 2+ goals
45%
Mensajero 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mensajero (draw refunded)
64%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mensajero at home — creates 2.10, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mensajero attack 2.10 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.54

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Mensajero defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mensajero scores more
48%
level
25%
Atlético Paso scores more
27%

Mensajero at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mensajero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Mensajero 1–0 Atlético Paso

Mensajero beat Atlético Paso 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Silvestre Carrillo in La Palma.