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Atlético Paso vs Mensajero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Mensajero
Mensajero
4/2/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 29Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso56%
×Draw24%
Mensajero20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.67
Mensajero
0.89

Atlético Paso creates 88% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 76 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Mensajero
1.08

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Mensajero
1.36

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Mensajero+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Mensajero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
80%
Atlético Paso or Mensajero
76%
Draw or Mensajero
44%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
30%
Mensajero wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
81%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
50%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
23%
Mensajero 1+ goals
59%
Mensajero 2+ goals
22%
Mensajero 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
74%
Mensajero (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Mensajero away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Mensajero defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.67

Mensajero attack 1.08 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
56%
level
24%
Mensajero scores more
20%

Atlético Paso at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Paso 1 – 1 Mensajero

Atlético Paso and Mensajero drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.