Menemen FK 1–2 Kasımpaşa: Result & Stats

Menemen FK

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kasımpaşa

12/6/2018

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundMenemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Menemen FK53%

×Draw24%

Kasımpaşa22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menemen FKExpected goals in this matchKasımpaşa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

Menemen FK

1.69

Kasımpaşa

1.00

Menemen FK creates 69% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.18

0.83

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Menemen FK

1.83

Kasımpaşa

1.18

allows per match

Menemen FK

0.83

Kasımpaşa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Kasımpaşa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw

78%

Menemen FK or Kasımpaşa

76%

Draw or Kasımpaşa

47%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+

29%

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals

82%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

50%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

24%

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals

63%

Kasımpaşa 2+ goals

26%

Kasımpaşa 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

71%

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

Kasımpaşa away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.83 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.69

Kasımpaşa attack 1.18 + Menemen FK defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Menemen FK scores more

53%

level

24%

Kasımpaşa scores more

22%

Menemen FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Menemen FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff