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Kasımpaşa vs Menemen FK — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Menemen FK
Menemen FK
12/19/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundRecep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kasımpaşa54%
×Draw20%
Menemen FK25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kasımpaşa
2.23
Menemen FK
1.47

Kasımpaşa creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kasımpaşa
2.63
Menemen FK
1.50

allows per match

Kasımpaşa
1.44
Menemen FK
1.83

finishing

Kasımpaşa+0.00on par
Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kasımpaşa ↓

Menemen FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kasımpaşa or draw
75%
Kasımpaşa or Menemen FK
80%
Draw or Menemen FK
46%

Winning margin

Kasımpaşa wins by 2+
33%
Menemen FK wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kasımpaşa 1+ goals
89%
Kasımpaşa 2+ goals
65%
Kasımpaşa 3+ goals
38%
Menemen FK 1+ goals
77%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
43%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kasımpaşa (draw refunded)
68%
Menemen FK (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kasımpaşa at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kasımpaşa attack 2.63 + Menemen FK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.23

Menemen FK attack 1.50 + Kasımpaşa defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kasımpaşa scores more
54%
level
20%
Menemen FK scores more
25%

Kasımpaşa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kasımpaşa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kasımpaşa vs Menemen FK

Kasımpaşa beat Menemen FK 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on December 19, 2018.

The match was played at Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu in İstanbul.