Menemen FK 2–0 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Menemen FK

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

8/15/2021

1. Lig · Round 1Menemen Şehir Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Menemen FK33%

×Draw27%

Erzurumspor FK41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Menemen FKExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Menemen FK

1.18

Erzurumspor FK

1.35

Erzurumspor FK creates 14% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 110 away

1.29

creates per match

1.16

1.54

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Menemen FK

1.29

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Menemen FK

1.54

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Menemen FK+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Menemen FK ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Menemen FK or draw

59%

Menemen FK or Erzurumspor FK

73%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

67%

Winning margin

Menemen FK wins by 2+

13%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Menemen FK 1+ goals

69%

Menemen FK 2+ goals

33%

Menemen FK 3+ goals

12%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

74%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

39%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Menemen FK (draw refunded)

45%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Menemen FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Menemen FK attack 1.29 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Menemen FK defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Menemen FK scores more

33%

level

27%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

41%

Erzurumspor FK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff