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Erzurumspor FK vs Menemen FK — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Menemen FK
Menemen FK
3/1/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 25Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Erzurumspor FK52%
×Draw25%
Menemen FK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.63
Menemen FK
1.00

Erzurumspor FK creates 63% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 52 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Menemen FK
1.06

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Menemen FK
1.62

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Menemen FK+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Menemen FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
77%
Erzurumspor FK or Menemen FK
75%
Draw or Menemen FK
48%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
28%
Menemen FK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
80%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
48%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
22%
Menemen FK 1+ goals
63%
Menemen FK 2+ goals
26%
Menemen FK 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
69%
Menemen FK (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Menemen FK away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.62 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Menemen FK defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.63

Menemen FK attack 1.06 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
52%
level
25%
Menemen FK scores more
23%

Erzurumspor FK at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Menemen FK

Erzurumspor FK beat Menemen FK 2-0 in 1. Lig on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.